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James R's avatar

The continuing decline is my takeaway from Threads. At first I cried for the people vaporised immediately. Later I decided that they were the lucky ones.

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Paul Musgrave's avatar

Living will envy the dead

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Alex Wellerstein's avatar

A trope I am interested in exploring further and at some length...!

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Paul Christiansen's avatar

Alex, this is absolutely fascinating -- both for itself, and for what you say of all the other Civil Defense documents. You describe the graph as "a tool to think with", which leads me to wonder about what kind of thoughts all the other non-honest CD documents led to.

Also, a few typos here and there are slipping through and impeding your meaning (particularly in the first quoted paragraph). Some content creators allow early access to some subscribers for review and corrections. Just a thought!

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Alex Wellerstein's avatar

For whatever reason, the PDF I have of this particular document is doing a weird thing where it is doubling up words and sentences in an apparently random fashion. I caught most of it... but apparently not all of it!

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Languid Spaceguy's avatar

Presumably it's just an artefact of having to fit the illustration into a specific space, but the 'hurdles' diagram looks disconcertingly like a circle...

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Alex Wellerstein's avatar

The DOD is and was, objectively speaking, terrible at graphic design.

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Graham Jenkins's avatar

Fascinating find! Will you at some point cover the 2011 "Key Response Planning Factors for the Aftermath of Nuclear Terrorism" that FEMA/LLNL/SNL put out? [https://irp.fas.org/agency/dhs/fema/ncr.pdf] I read that just after moving to DC originally and its look at (among other things) the protection against blast, radiation, and fallout offered by a typical Columbia Heights rowhouse was...eye-opening.

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Alex Wellerstein's avatar

Oh, definitely. It's on the list!

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Aaron Tovish's avatar

Alex, I am flabberghasted that you let the very first sentence of the first quote go uncommented upon: "No one has gone through a nuclear war." Well, there a tens of thousands of "natural experts" in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Did these jerks in DCPA ever consult with them? Does their manual ever even mention those attacks? And why don't you (in this piece)? Please don't let callous comments like this slip through ever again. Thanks. Aaron

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Alex Wellerstein's avatar

Well, I sort of thought the line spoke for itself! Of course, they are imagining a multi-party nuclear war on a much larger scale than the Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks, with multi-megaton weapons, fallout, and a likely total (if temporary) loss of centralized authority capable of mounting a relief effort.

The DCPA *was* interested in the survivor accounts at Hiroshima, but *only* inasmuch as it gave insights into how to be better survivors. So after discussing building fires in a section called "Some Japanese Experiences" (!), they conclude, "If one assumes that Americans can do what the unsuspecting residents of Hiroshima did, self-help measures by shelter fire-guard teams appear to be effective." A section on "What Happened at Hiroshima" discusses the impact exclusively in terms of casualty-causing effects. So they were interested in the people at Hiroshima (and to a lesser extent, Nagasaki), but primarily as "case studies" and often case studies in "what to avoid." John Hersey it ain't, but that is hardly any surprise, given the source!

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Aaron Tovish's avatar

Yes, the context becomes evident further into the quote, but to negate that the people of Hiroshima and Nagasaki experienced nuclear warfare even if of the sub-megaton variety, is offensive. I am sure you have spoken with survivors; wouldn't you expect them to wince when reading that?

One a different note, I hope you write some time soon on how the powers that be are "adjusting" their thinking in light of the revival of catastrophic climate disruption studies since 2000. My own thinking on this is reflected in a recent Liberation Day Countdown blog: https://aaron-tovish.medium.com/liberation-day-minus-7700-log-10-the-fatal-flaw-in-nuclear-deterrence-269eac47ef9b .

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Alex Wellerstein's avatar

They are welcome to wince! I am not offering up the DOD's book as anything other than what it is — a bizarre, if interesting, artifact. I will say that I think there are far more bizarre and offensive things in this particular document, which I will write about at further length! :-)

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